After years of conflict that killed over 400,000 people and displaced millions, a peace deal was signed to formally end South Sudan’s civil war. On the line to discuss what this peace deal entails and analyze whether or not it can hold is Jok Madut Jok, a professor at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University and a senior analyst with the Sudd Institute, which is a public policy center based in Juba, South Sudan.
The Last Remaining Nuclear Arms Treaty Between the United States and Russia May Soon Expire
A 2011 agreement known as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, is the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. The treaty imposes limits on the size and composition of the nuclear arsenals of the world’s two largest nuclear powers. And it allows Russia and the United States to inspect each others nuclear arsenals to ensure compliance.
New START is now the only nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia.
Last year the Trump administration withdrew from a Ronald Reagan era agreement called the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF, that eliminated a certain class of nuclear weapons.
But even though it’s the only nuclear treaty between the U.S. and Russia, New START may not last much longer. The treaty officially expires in February 2021. So far, it is unclear whether or not the Trump administration will seek its extension. Russia has already signaled that it would extend the agreement another five years, but the Trump administration has so far demurred.
On the line with me to discuss the significance of New START is Thomas Countryman. He was a longtime career diplomat who served as the US Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation from 2011 to 2017. He is now the chair of the board of the Arms Control Association.
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What to Expect from North Korea in 2020
We may be in for a very turbulent year of nuclear diplomacy with North Korea
Since 2018, North Korea has had a self-imposed moratorium on the testing of nuclear weapons and long range missiles, like the kind that could reach the United States. The moratorium stems from the diplomatic opening between the United States and North Korea that culminated in three meetings between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un. However, even as North Korea has paused its long range missile and nuclear testing, it has continued other tests to advance its nuclear weapons program.
At the very end of 2019, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivered remarks in a New Year’s speech that suggest what this self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and missile testing was over — and on top of that, that North Korea has a powerful new weapon in its arsenal.
So what does this all mean for nuclear diplomacy with North Korea and the prospect of more provocations, or even outright conflict?
On the line with me to discuss where we are headed with North Korea is Dr. Jeffrey Lewis. He is a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterrey. He is a longtime nuclear security expert and and North Korea watcher. We kick off discussing the impact, if any, of the US killing of Iranian general Qassam Soulemani on North Korea’s strategic thinking before having a longer conversation about North Korea’s nuclear program and the prospects for diplomacy in 2020.
Also, last time Jeffrey Lewis was on the show we discussed his book, published in 2018, which is actually a novel that presents a very plausible scenario for a nuclear exchange between North Korea and the United States that takes place in 2020. So, naturally, we ended this conversation discussing the likelihood of whether or not the events he describes in his book may transpire.
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What Comes Next Between Iran and the United States
I spoke to my guest today, Ilan Goldenberg, just a couple hours after Donald Trump addressed the nation following an Iranian missile attack on bases in Iraq. The Iranian attack, of course, was in retaliation to a US drone strike that killed a top Iranian official Qassem Souleimani on January third.
In his remarks, Donald Trump signaled that he was ready for the offramp and would not launch new military strikes in the near term. The Iranian government also said that the missile attacks on bases in Iraq had concluded their retaliation.
For the moment, the crisis is not poised to escalate. But, says Ilan Goldenberg, we can very much expect Iran to launch further reprisals in the future — and this could include terrorist attacks and assassination attempts against US targets.
Ilan Goldenberg is a former Defense Department official in the Obama administration whose work focused on Iran. He is now director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, DC. In our conversation we discuss the events of the first week of January and what comes next. Ilan Goldenberg describes the strategic thinking underway in Iran that lead to this missile strike on a base holding US troops in Iraq, and also why and how he expects further retaliation. We also discuss how the US killing of Souleimani might affect Iran’s compliance with the Nuclear Deal and what opportunities exist, it at all, for de-escalation.
If you have twenty minutes and want to understand where this crisis between Iran and the United States is heading, have a listen.
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How to Promote Tolerance in Myanmar, a country that recently experienced a genocide
In 2017, hundreds of thousands of Rohingya muslims were driven from their homes in Myanmar. At the time, a UN official called this a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing.” And today, the government of Myanmar is being sued at the International Court of Justice for perpetrating a genocide.
These attacks against the Rohingya are the most recent and extreme example of sectarian violence and discrimination in Myanmar — which is an incredibly diverse country with a long history of ethnic conflict.
So how does one stop this trend? How do you promote tolerance and pluralism in a place in which diversity has been used to fuel conflict? On the line with me today is someone who is doing just that.
Aung Kyaw Moe is the founder and executive director of the Center for Social Integrity in Myanmar. This is an organization that provides both humanitarian relief but also engages in peace-building and advocacy work. He is Rohingya and has used humanitarian aid in parts of the country where Rohingya live to encourage cross ethnic partnerships.
Aung Kyaw Moe and his organization recently received a high honor, the Global Pluralism Award, which is conferred by the Global Centre for Pluralism, a joint partnership between The Aga Khan and the Government of Canada.
We kick of discussing diversity in Myanmar before having a longer conversation about how that how diversity has been used as a wedge to ignite conflict, and how Aung Kyaw Moe is working to reverse that trend.
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How The Global Fund Fights AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria Saves Lives
The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria was created in 2002 as a partnership between governments, philanthropies and civil society. At the time, these three diseases were completely out of control, killing millions of people each year and with no end in sight.
17 years later, thanks in large part to the Global Fund, we can imagine the end of AIDS, TB and Malaria. Deaths from these three diseases have declined precipitously. Instances of infection have also declined–though not as sharply as mortality rates.
In all, some $32 million lives have been saved through the Global Fund, which is essentially a pool of money that is strategically disbursed in select countries to reduce instances and deaths from these diseases. The way this money is raised is from contributions from donors, the most significant of which are countries. And in late October in Lyon, France the Global Fund held a pledging conference in which it sought to raise a minimum of $14 billion to cover its operations over the next three years.
And as my guest today Peter Sands explains it was something of a nail-biter in Lyon as to whether or not they would hit that goal.
Peter Sands is the executive director of the Global Fund. In this conversation he takes us behind the scenes at that donor conference. We discuss progress against those three diseases, how the global fund works and why of those diseases Tuberculosis has been the most difficult to confront. If you have 25 minutes and want to learn what new investments the Global Fund will make in the coming years, have a listen.
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How Narendra Modi’s Hardline Hindu Nationalism is Transforming India
India’s prime minister Narendra Modi was re-elected to office in a landslide victory for his BJP party. Since then, he has implemented policies that have promoted hardline sectarianism.
Modi is a Hindu nationalist in a diverse country that includes one of the world’s largest Muslim populations. He rose to political prominence in the early 2000s as the chief minister of Gujarat during inter-communal riots that lead to the murder of over a thousand people, mostly Muslims. He was widely accused of failing to stop the riots and has used the mass murder of Muslims in Gujarat in 2002 to his political advantage.
Modi was first elected Prime Minister in 2014 and since his re-election in May 2019, Modi has very much doubled down on implementing a stridently pro-Hindu agenda that is undermining secular democracy in India. This includes, most recently, the passage of a law that excludes Muslim immigrants to India of certain citizenship eligibilities.
That transparently anti-Muslim law has sparked massive protests across India, which at time of recording show little signs of abating.
On the line with me to explain how a newly re-elected Narendra Modi is using his political power to advance a Hindu nationalist agenda, what what that means in a country with nearly 200 million Muslims is Michael Kugelman. He is Deputy director of the Asia Program and South Asia senior associate at the Wilson Center. We kick off discussing this new citizenship law before having a broader conversation about how Narenda Modi is changing India, what that means for Indian democracy and international relations.
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Libya is Poised to Become a Huge Crisis in 2020
The crisis in Libya is about to get much worse. Nine months ago a renegade general named Khalifa Hiftar launched an attack on the internationally recognized and UN-backed government in Tripoli. That assault suddenly ended UN-brokered peace process that seemed to be on the brink of success.
In the ensuing months, the sides have been locked into a stalemate, with fighting mostly confined to neighborhoods on the outskirts of Tripoli. But, recently Hiftar’s foreign backers have stepped up their support. This includes Russia, which has deployed troops and equipment to Hiftar this fall. Meanwhile, Turkey is raising the possibility that it will send troops to defend Tripoli from Hiftar’s attack.
The situation is now extremely perilous. Outside forces, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates are fueling this conflict. Meanwhile, key diplomatic players in Europe and the United States are sending mixed signals about their preferred outcome. So, at the end of 2019 it could very well transpire that Libya descends into a crushing proxy war and civil war, of enormous humanitarian consequence.
On the line to discuss the crisis in Libya is Mary Fitzgerald. She is a longtime researcher who recently returned from Libya. In this episode of the Global Dispatches podcast she explains how we got to this point–that is, how Libya descended into chaos after the fall of Gadaffi and how a civil war in Libya became the venue for an international proxy war. If you have 25 minutes and want to learn why Libya could become the major international crisis of 2020, have a listen.
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UN Correspondent Chat: What’s Buzzing at United Nations Headquarters
It’s December at the United Nations. Just weeks before many delegates and staff take time off for the holidays. But as the year winds down, some issues are heating up. North Korea is once again dominating the Security Council. Meanwhile, the United Nations is running out of money — literally.
On the Global Dispatches podcast to discuss what is buzzing at the United Nations at the end of the decade, and otherwise driving the agenda at UN Headquarters is Margaret Besheer, UN correspondent for Voice of America news.
We spoke in mid December and we kick off with a brief discussion about a sudden decision by the United States to back off its support for a Security Council meeting about human rights in North Korea. We then have a longer discussion about the still-new US Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft, who at the time was serving as president of the Security Council. Another key topic we spend a good amount of time discussing is the impact to the United Nations of a cash flow shortage. The United Nations is seemingly barely making payroll because some key countries have not paid their UN membership dues on time and in full.
If you have 25 minutes and want to learn the latest news from United Nations headquarters in New York, have a listen.
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Why the Protests in Hong Kong Have Taken a New Turn
Protests in Hong Kong. Credit: Studio Incendo via Flickr CC license
Protesters in Hong Kong are once again flexing their muscle. Over the weekend, the largest protests in weeks stretched through downtown Hong Kong as nearly 1 million people took to the streets to demand greater civil liberties.
This protest was the latest turn in a movement that has endured since this summer, when millions of people in Hong Kong took to the streets in an unprecedented protest against a proposed law that could allow for the extradition of people in Hong Kong to mainland china. Protesters saw that as an affront to what is known as the “one country, two systems policy.” This is the idea that though Hong Kong is formally part of China, it also has a special political status as a former British Colony — and that status includes a degree of autonomy and freedoms from the political system of mainland china.
Since those protests against the extradition bill over the summer, the situation in Hong Kong has changed dramatically. Protests have continued and have widened to include other demands. This includes a demand for universal suffrage for the people of Hong Kong. The protests and the police reaction to it have also become increasingly violent.
On the Global Dispatches podcast today is Victoria Tin-bor Hui, a professor of political science at Notre Dame University. She discusses the situation in Hong Kong, including how the protest movement and Beijing’s reaction to it have evolved since the summer. She also discusses the concrete demands of the protesters.
If you have 25 minutes and want to learn why the people of Hong Kong are protesting and where the situation may be headed, have a listen
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Watch: Victoria Tin-bor Hui testifies to the US Congress
