Archives for January 2019

What is Next for the United States in Afghanistan?

The United States and the Taliban may be close to an agreement. Negotiations over the future of US involvement in Afghanistan are underway in Qatar, and in late January there was word of a “tentative” agreement that could lead to the US exiting Afghanistan and the Taliban entering Afghan politics.

These negotiations are the latest iteration of an evolving US strategy toward Afghanistan two years into the Trump administration.

On the line to discuss the Trump administration’s approach to Afghanistan in the context of recent US history is Sharifullah Dorani.  He is the author of the new book America in Afghanistan: Foreign Policy and Decision Making from Bush to Obama to Trump. A the title suggests, the book examines the history of US involvement in Afghanistan from 2001 through the first two years of the Trump presidency.

We discuss what has stayed the same and what has distinguished the Trump administration’s approach to Afghanistan from his predecessors.

We recorded this conversation just a few weeks after Trump, via Tweet, suggested a precipitous withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. We discuss what role American troops are currently playing in Afghanistan and what some of the debates about troop levels have been. We also discuss the ongoing diplomatic efforts led by Trump’s envoy to Afghanistan, former US Ambassador to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad.

If you have 20 minutes and want to better understand the context in which negotiations between the United States and the Taliban are taking place, then have a listen.

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United Nations Correspondent Chat: Margaret Besheer of Voice of America

Today’s episode is the launch of a new series: UN Correspondent Chatter.

From time to time I’ll check in with an in-house reporter at the United Nations headquarters in New York to discuss the latest news, buzz, and intrigues around Turtle Bay.

I’m pleased to launch this new series with Margaret Besheer of the Voice of America. She has covered the UN since 2008 and has a been a great source of news and insight to me over the years.

We cover a lot of ground in this conversation, including how the UN is responding to the situation in Venezuela; the significance of a breakthrough on Yemen in the Security Council; the implications of Palestine taking over as the chair of a key group of countries; what to expect from the US at the UN in the coming months; and whether or not other diplomatic breakthroughs may be possible on the horizon.

This is a lively conversation with a veteran UN correspondent who has her finger on the pulse of UN headquarters in New York. If you have 20 minutes and want to learn what will drive the agenda at the United Nations at the start of 2019, have a listen.

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Crisis in Venezuela

Venezuela is in the midst of a deep political crisis that could turn extremely dangerous.

On January 23rd, the 35-year-old head of the Venezuela’s National Assembly Juan Guiado declared himself president of Venezuela,  promising to serve in that role on an interim basis before free elections could be held. He was quickly recognized as the legitimate head of state by the United States, Canada, the Organization of American States and many countries in Latin America.

De-facto president Nicolas Maduro is rejecting this claim.  Maduro still controls most of the government, including crucially the security services. So far,  military leadership has yet to defect and proclaim to Guiado. Meanwhile, Maduro is backed by other countries in the region, and also some key international players like Russia.

There is an extremely dangerous standoff underway in Venezuela, the outcome of which is very far from certain.

On the Global Dispatches podcast o provide some context to help you understand this crisis is Ivan Briscoe. He is the regional director for Latin America with the International Crisis Group.

We kick off discussing the political context of this situation, including how a relatively unknown politician came to declare himself President. We then discuss the crucial role of the military and security services in determining the political future of Venezuela and whether or not it was a mistake for the US and other countries to quickly rally behind Guiado.

This is obviously a very rapidly unfolding situation. Ivan Briscoe brings some dispassionate analysis that will give you the context and background you need to interpret events in the coming days and weeks.

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About Ivan Briscoe

Ivan Briscoe joined Crisis Group in June 2016 as Program Director for Latin America and the Caribbean. He has worked on Latin American politics, conflict and crime since 1996. Before joining Crisis Group, Ivan worked as a senior research fellow in the Clingendael Institute of the Netherlands and in the Foundation for International Relations and Foreign Dialogue (FRIDE) in Spain, where he specialised in the study of illicit networks in Latin America, new forms of armed violence and the effects of inequality.

Prior to that, he worked for over a decade as a journalist and editor in Argentina, France and Spain, where he edited the English edition of El País. He has carried out fieldwork-based research in various Latin American countries, including Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Peru and Venezuela, and has written for numerous media in the region and in Europe. He graduated from Oxford University with a First Class Honour’s Degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics, studied as a Frank Knox Fellow at Harvard University, and also holds a Master’s Degree in Development from the Complutense University of Madrid.

Coffee Is Being Threatened With Extinction Because of Climate Change

Two new scientific papers show how climate change is affecting species of coffee plants in Africa, Australia and Asia. The findings of these research studies have big implications for coffee drinkers, coffee producers and everyone else involved in this massive global industry.

At issues is the survivability of what is known as “wild coffee.” These are some 124 species of coffee that grow naturally in forests in coffee growing climates of Africa, Asia and Australia.

Most coffee consumers do not drink coffee from wild species. Rather, we drink two species, Arabica and Robusta, that are not currently threatened with extinction. But the fate of the massive worldwide coffee industries that have formed around Arabica and Robusta are closely linked to that of wild coffee. If wild coffee continues on its trajectory toward extinction, the gene pool from which Robusta and Arabica can draw to adapt in the face of evolutionary threats will dry up. That means coffee itself may become a threatened species of plant.

Dr. Aaron Davis is Senior Research Leader and head of Coffee Research at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew. He was involved in both of these papers. He explains the link between wild coffee and climate change, and why having wild coffee is necessary for the long term viability of the coffee we consumers drink.

We kick off talking more generally about the science of coffee before having a longer conversation about the broader broader social and economic implications of his research into climate change and coffee excitation.

If you have 20 minutes and want to learn how climate change is affecting coffee production, have a listen.

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References

Davis, A.P., Chadburn, H., Moat, J., O’Sullivan, R., Hargreaves, S. & Lughadha, E.N. (2019). High extinction risk for wild coffee species and implications for coffee sector sustainability. Science Advances, 5 : eaav3473. Available online

Moat, J., Gole, T.W. & Davis, A.P. (2018). Least concern to endangered: Applying climate change projections profoundly influences the extinction risk assessment for wild Arabica coffee. Gobal Change Biology, 1-14. Available online.

The IUCN Red List – to view the assessments mentioned, search Coffea.

Election Fraud in the Democratic Republic of Congo

The Democratic Republic of Congo held elections on December 30th that would mark the country’s first peaceful transfer of power since its independence in 1960. The long serving ruler Joseph Kabilla had effectively delayed these elections for years but after much international and domestic pressure, he promised to step down and cede power to the winner of these elections.

Votes were cast. Ballots were counted. A winner declared–and according to several reports a massive fraud was perpetrated.

The Catholic Church, which served as independent election monitors, said that the declared results do not match their data. And on January 15th the Financial Times obtained the raw data from electronic voting machines, which demonstrated a wide margin of victory for opposition candidate Martin Fayulu.

On the line with me to discuss what appears to be industrial scale election fraud in the DRC is Ida Sawyer. She is the deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Africa division and a longtime observer of politics in the DRC.

In this conversation she explains who the main candidates are; why this election is so significant, and what it means that such a fraud was perpetrated.

Over the next several weeks and perhaps months this election related drama will unfold in the DRC. This conversation gives you the context you need to understand and interpret events as they unfold.

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About Ida Sawyer 

Ida Sawyer is deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Africa division. She was previously the organization’s Central Africa director, overseeing work on the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, and the Central African Republic. From 2008 to 2016, she was based in Congo with Human Rights Watch, first in Goma and later in the capital, Kinshasa. She conducted research across Congo and in areas of neighboring countries affected by the Lord’s Resistance Army, and her research has been integral to numerous Human Rights Watch reports.

In August 2016, Congolese authorities barred Ida from continuing to work in the country, following a series of Human Rights Watch publications on political repression. Ida has authored numerous Human Rights Watch reports and other documents, and she has written for publications including The New York Times, The Washington Post, and Foreign Policy. Ida conducts high level advocacy with African officials and other international actors as well as outreach with national human rights groups.

Ida came to Human Rights Watch from Cairo, where she had worked as a freelance journalist. Her previous experience in Africa’s Great Lakes region includes work for Care International and the Charity for Peace Foundation in northern Uganda, as well as research in Congo on the cross-border dynamics of natural resource exploitation. Ida holds a Masters in international affairs, specializing in human rights, from Columbia University.

Protests in Sudan Threaten to Bring Down the Genocidal Regime of Omar al Bashir

A protest movement in Sudan is posing the biggest challenge to the genocidal regime of Omar al Bashir in decades. The protests began just before Christmas, ostensibly over an increase in the price of bread.  They quickly — and unexpectedly spread.

The long ruling regime has responded to these protests with violence. But nevertheless, these protests persist.

On the line with me to discuss the origins of this protest movement, how it spread and whether or not it may take down the nearly thirty year reign of Omar al Bashir is Professor Zachariah Cherian Mampilly of Vassar College.

We discuss the origins of the Sudanese regime, and what has made the rule of Omar al Bashir so enduring. We discuss the origins of this protest movement, and how it may evolve over the coming months and weeks.

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If you have 20 minutes and want to understand this growing protest movement in authoritarian Sudan, then have a listen.

About Zachariah Cherian Mampilly

Zachariah Mampilly is a Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Vassar College. In 2012/2013, he was a Fulbright Visiting Professor at the University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. He is the author of Rebel Rulers: Insurgent Governance and Civilian Life during War(Cornell U. Press 2011), and Africa Uprising: Popular Protest and Political Change (Zed Press, 2015), co-written with Adam Branch. Mampilly teaches courses on civil wars and rebel movements; race, ethnicity and nationalism; and the international relations of the Third World.

What Comes Next for the World Bank after Jim Yong Kim’s Sudden Resignation?

Photo: World Bank / Simone D. McCourtie
Photo: World Bank / Simone D. McCourtie

World Bank president Jim Yong Kim is stepping down at the end January. He made that announcement on January 7th, surprising most observers for the fact that he is resigning from his post with three years left in his second term.

This vacancy presents a key inflection point for the World Bank.

An American has always headed the World Bank. This is owing to a deal struck between the United States and Europe in which the US backs the European nominee for head of the International Monetary Fund while Europe backs the US nominee for head of the World Bank. That longstanding tradition may now come to an end.

Scott Morris is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development and longtime observer and analyst of the World Bank. In this conversation we discuss Jim Kim’s legacy at the Bank and why his departure now sets the stage for a potential clash between the Trump administration and other governments over who will next lead the Bank.

If you have 20 minutes and want a deeper understanding of the broader international implications of Jim Yong Kim’s departure from the World Bank–and what it signals about the World Bank’s work during the Trump era —  have a listen.

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About Scott Morris

Scott Morris is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development and director of the US Development Policy Initiative. In addition to managing the center’s work on US development policy, his research addresses development finance issues, debt policy, governance issues at international financial institutions like the World Bank and IMF, and China’s role as a development actor.

Morris served as deputy assistant secretary for development finance and debt at the US Treasury Department during the first term of the Obama Administration. In that capacity, he led US engagement with the multilateral development bank, as well as US participation in the Paris Club of official creditors. He also represented the US government in the G-20’s Development Working Group and was the Treasury’s “+1” on the board of the Millennium Challenge Corporation. During his time at Treasury, Morris led negotiations for four general capital increases at the multilateral development banks and replenishments of the International Development Association (IDA), Asian Development Fund, and African Development Fund.

Morris was a senior staff member on the Financial Services Committee in the US House of Representatives, where he was responsible for the Committee’s international policy issues, including the Foreign Investment and National Security Act of 2007 (the landmark reform of the CFIUS process), as well multiple reauthorizations of the US Export-Import Bank charter and approval of a $108 billion financing agreement for the International Monetary Fund in 2009. Previously, Morris was a vice president at the Committee for Economic Development in Washington, DC.

The Migrant Route to Europe is Changing (Again)

You would not know it from the headlines, but more irregular migrants and refugees are arriving to Europe via a route that takes them from Morocco to Spain than, are arriving to Italy via Libya or to Greece via Turkey. In fact, even as the numbers of migrants arriving to Europe declined overall in 2018, the migrant route from Morocco to Spain experienced a sharp increase.

More irregular migrants and refugees are now arriving in Europe via the straight of Gibraltar than anywhere else — and this is presenting a new set of challenges for European governments and the migrants themselves.  Most of these migrants are refugees are from sub-Saharan Africa, and are braving this perilous journey in order to improve their lives.

On the line with me to explain why the Morocco-to-Spain route has become so popular, and what this change in migration routes says about Europe’s shifting attitudes towards migrants and refugees is Joe Wallen.

Joe Wallen is a freelance foreign correspondent for The Telegraph, The Guardian and al Jazeera. He’s reported extensively from sub-saharan migrant communities in Morocco who seek to make the journey across the straight of Gibraltar. In the process, he has reported on human rights abuses that are being visited upon this community by both traffickers and Moroccan security forces backed by the European Union.

We kick off with a discussion of the evolving migrant routes from Africa and the Middle East before having a longer discussion about the current situation in Morocco.

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Middle Powers Beware: A Growing Crisis Between Canada and China Has Big Global Implications

On December 1st, a business executive named Meng Wangzhou was arrested while transferring through the Vancouver airport. Her arrest came at the request of US authorities, who are seeking her extradition to the United States.  Ms Meng is the CFO of the Chinese telecom giant Huawei and her case has drawn the attention of the highest reaches of the Chinese government.

About ten days after Meng’s arrest, a former Canadian diplomat and analyst with the International Crisis Group named Michael Kovrig was mysteriously detained in China. Soon after, another Canadian, businessman Micheal Spavor, was arrested under similarly opaque circumstances.  These arrests are clearly intended as retribution for Canada’s acquiescence to America’s request for the extradition of Ms. Meng.

These incidents have plunged Canada into a diplomatic crisis. But this is a crisis that has implications far beyond Canada, according to my guest today Stephanie Carvin. Stephanie Carvin is an assistant professor of International affairs at Carlton University in Ottawa. She is also the host of A Podcast Called INTREPID.

In this episode we discuss both the details of this diplomatic crisis and why what is happening right now between China and Canada is something to which every observer of international affairs ought to be paying close attention.

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About Stephanie Carvin

Stephanie Carvin is an Assistant Professor of International Relations at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. Her research interests are in the area of international law, security, terrorism and technology. Currently, she is teaching in the areas of critical infrastructure protection, technology and warfare and foreign policy.

Stephanie holds a PhD from the London School of Economics and published her thesis as Prisoners of America’s Wars: From the Early Republic to Guantanamo (Columbia/Hurst, 2010). Her most recent book is Science, Law, Liberalism and the American Way of Warfare: The Quest for Humanity in Conflict” (Cambridge, 2015) co-authored with Michael J. Williams. In 2009 Carvin was a Visiting Scholar at George Washington University Law School and worked as a consultant to the US Department of Defense Law of War Working Group. From 2012-2015, she was an analyst with the Government of Canada focusing on national security issues.